2010

Sales in the first quarter will be somewhat better than those of the first quarter of 2009. Sales in the second quarter of 2010 should be hugely better than the second quarter of 2009. The last half of 2010 may well be flat with results in the last half of 2009 due to higher interest rates and the removal of tax credits from housing at June 30.

We expect that existing sales may be up to 5.4 million next year and new homes another 400,000 to 450,000 units. Call it a 5.9 million-unit year up from 5.4-5.5 million pace this year. We do not yet know how many sales are being pulled forward due to the tax credit but it’s not a small number.

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That's what seems to be coming in 2010.  There is one point I would like to touch on and that is the "distressed property market".  This is an all encompassing name for foreclosures and short sales.  Under the current search criteria in the local Multiple Listing Service we don't have a separate category for short sales so we can't see the actual number of short sales that have been completed during 2009.  I would speculate that that number is large, maybe as high as 10000 in the local metro area.  I don't see this number going down anytime soon.  As lenders and banks, large and small, streamline their processes, more and more homes will be sold as short sales with the lender or bank accepting less for the home than what is currently owed on it.  This process lessens the number of homes going to foreclosure and the high carrying costs to the banks.  It's a way for them to get the defaulting assets off their books.  And the government is currently making incentive payments to the lenders to get short sales processed.  So in 2010, I see this part of the "distressed property market" as only growing.  Needless to say, foreclosures will be with us for a few more years.  We all hope this number will decrease and we can get more stability in the housing market and reach a point in time where house values actually stabilize and increase.  That would be a giant step in returning to the former levels of increased growth in the housing market and home appreciation, something we haven't seen in a few years.  So as we end one year and decade and get ready to enter another, the outlook is improving for housing in 2010. 

I would like to add my thanks to all of you who have visited my site during the year and listened to me ramble on about the state of our real estate market.  I think we'll have an improved year in 2010 and with improvements in the unemployment numbers and the economy, I'm looking forward to the new year with great enthusiasm.  Again, if I can be of service to any of you in 2010 with any of your real estate needs, I'm only an email or phone call away.  Thank you for your visit and have a Happy Holiday and a Great New Year.